Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 117.412395 134.376984 153.457502 176.608450 204.072233 235.776242 275.382025
2026-01-25 94.538522 115.939207 142.113885 176.841845 222.247557 280.351940 361.566563
2026-02-01 78.617759 101.374739 130.978128 172.996973 232.239798 314.552616 440.791841
2026-02-08 67.387407 90.375458 121.773865 168.835200 239.445966 344.612402 519.442719
2026-02-15 59.116456 81.895935 114.298112 165.154325 245.658925 373.112302 600.960264
2026-02-22 56.022454 80.150670 115.894541 174.686187 273.052776 439.139553 760.290617
2026-03-01 51.649464 75.868270 112.968155 176.426790 287.714595 486.377043 898.168815
2026-03-08 48.091475 72.356855 110.685400 178.668474 303.279078 537.882345 1058.345365
2026-03-15 44.603464 68.538176 107.382616 178.551309 314.325810 582.763901 1217.496797
2026-03-22 43.257542 68.019557 109.421922 188.061872 345.005987 673.170731 1509.238555
2026-03-29 41.754973 67.053794 110.527649 195.915485 373.714540 765.967094 1841.142946
2026-04-05 40.187814 65.800143 110.942124 202.428481 400.739339 861.416545 2218.449429
2026-04-12 38.035312 63.401961 109.176146 204.711993 419.858789 945.152171 2606.466156
2026-04-19 35.773384 60.603689 106.376762 204.514850 433.465589 1019.200486 3002.359985
2026-04-26 33.218714 57.040892 101.748564 199.806315 435.569690 1063.608007 3321.854150
2026-05-03 30.898045 53.720696 97.267782 194.824854 436.126409 1104.115398 3650.251380
2026-05-10 28.873806 50.797358 93.293181 190.446139 437.415505 1147.265959 4014.593138
2026-05-17 28.570076 51.163347 96.011951 201.760471 482.143602 1336.718011 5124.124432
2026-05-24 27.411997 49.746309 94.881373 203.828514 502.177854 1454.046281 5997.549654
2026-05-31 26.393789 48.525468 94.044021 206.493884 524.538342 1587.345540 7066.199091
2026-06-07 25.223129 46.902550 92.182659 206.354449 538.683438 1696.611080 8105.274332
2026-06-14 25.008286 47.234869 94.655385 217.676283 590.533561 1969.563244 10440.504520
2026-06-21 24.632865 47.195775 96.284482 227.040883 638.671642 2250.447411 13223.446703